TORONTO — A pair of Ottawa-area ridings are up for grabs in provincial byelections on Thursday, but the major parties vying for the seats — and an expert watching the races — agreed they would be hard to take from the Ontario Liberals.
The byelections are set for Orleans and Ottawa-Vanier on Thursday to select replacements for a pair of former Liberal legislators who resigned last year.
Genevieve Tellier, a political science professor at the University of Ottawa, said the ridings are both Liberal strongholds that held during the disasterous 2018 election which saw the party reduced to just seven seats.
"The Liberals probably have the best ground team to get out the vote," she said. "That will play a part in the result ... and the Conservative government is so unpopular I would be very surprised to see them win."
Voters will select replacements for former Liberal legislators Nathalie Des Rosiers and Marie-France Lalonde. Des Rosiers resigned last summer to take a position at the University of Toronto, while Lalonde left in October to represent the riding federally.
Tellier said the large francophone population in both ridings could play a major factor in the vote, as anger over Premier Doug Ford's cuts to the French-language services commissioner and the decision to scrap the French-language university still lingers.
And while the government has since partnered with the federal government to resurrect the university's development — inking a funding agreement on Wednesday — francophones are still not likely to support the Tories, she said.
"Before Doug Ford, the Conservatives were in a position to bring back francophone voters," she said. "(Former Tory leader) Patrick Brown had done a lot of work towards that, and that has disappeared with Doug Ford. It will be years and years before they will be able to reach out to francophones."
Government House Leader Paul Calandra conceded that the seats will be difficult win but said the party's candidates — Natalie Montgomery and Patrick Mayangi — have worked hard.
"I suspect that the Liberals will remain strong in that area," he said. "Regardless of where we finish, if we win both of the byelections, we're always going to redouble our efforts. ...It's about setting an agenda which we will fight the next election on."
The Liberals, who have run Stephen Blais in Orleans and Lucille Collard in Ottawa-Vanier, are taking nothing for granted said interim party leader John Fraser.
"We've worked hard in this election," he said. "But it only happens when you get election day right, and we're going to have to do that tomorrow."
The official Opposition New Democrats are running Manon Parrot in Orleans and Myriam Djilane in Ottawa-Vanier.
Party Leader Andrea Horwath said the Liberals have a firm hold on both ridings but she expects the results will say more about the state of the Progressive Conservative government.
"Let's face it, they survived as Liberal ridings in the last election when pretty much the rest of the province went a different direction," she said. "Our candidates have heard on the doorstep that people are very disappointed with this government and they're very unhappy with the direction Ford has been going."
Green Leader Mike Schreiner said he's hopeful his party can increase its vote totals in the ridings.
"We recognize that these are long-time Liberal ridings," he said. "I don't think people expect to see a shift in that regard. But we want a strong showing because we feel that sends a strong statement."
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Feb. 26, 2020.
Shawn Jeffords, The Canadian Press
Note to readers: This is a corrected story. A previous version misspelled the name of Nathalie Des Rosiers.
