Making a seasonal climatic prediction is a tricky business. These predictions were made by the end of this August on the back roads.
There are meteorological and astronomical seasons because the Earth spins around the sun at an angle of 23.5 degrees the tilt in the axis of the Earth is called its obliquity by scientists. Here, we know winter is coming it officially starts on Saturday, December 21, 2024, at 4:19 a.m. and ends on Tuesday, March 20, 2025, at 6:28 a.m., good for your digital calendar.
The good news is that from December 21, the daylight hours increase although this is the time for a bout of Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD). I saw this lightbox therapy, product advertised online. It purports “…the lightbox provides a measured amount of balanced spectrum light equivalent to standing outdoors on a clear spring day,” which should work then to beat off the February winter blahs.
What is in store for us temperature and snow-wise, the readers are on the edge of their couches waiting for the prediction.
Indigenous knowledge
A local void in climatic prediction was created on March 14, 2013, when long-time weather prognosticator, Gord Restoule passed away. He was regarded as a wealth of what he would call common sense, but what scientists now refer to as traditional environmental knowledge. His predictions were not made through the rigours of scientific investigation. He used the simple beliefs of his ancestors who lived and survived through a relationship with their changing environment. I learned a great deal from Gord. He was my mentor. My most precious honour and possession, as a settler, was to be welcomed into the Dokis First Nation community through a special eagle feather ceremony and given a totem and tobacco pouch.
Gord was featured in Canadian Geographic magazine in the Nov. /Dec. issue in 1994 (pg. 20). In the Weather Wise section it says, “For him, it’s the size of the accumulated feed bed and the thickness of the mud that beavers plaster on their lodges that reveals the misery level of the coming winter.” So it is the beavers, reliable enough, as the species depicted on one side of the nickel coin for the longest time. I wonder if the nickel will go the way of the penny. Things have really changed since we have been living with climate change.
For most of his life, Gord judged the weather through personal experiences and the passed-along wisdom of the elders. He said with a wry smile, “You always learned by listening to the wisdom in their stories. Old Indians never waste any words.” I listened.
He would say, “The first step in making a prediction is to be one with Nature. Most people don’t see the signs and are too much in a hurry.” The behaviour of animals, birds and insects, the face of the sky and the growth of plants lead him to report a multitude of weather maxims with good accuracy. “These are always present to those who take notice of little things,” he would say. I began to take notice and take nature in without social media.
For the longer-term prediction, Gord would cite several signs. Southward-moving Canada geese flying low in the sky showed they were not in a hurry, delaying the start of winter. Also migrating birds staying put for feeding was a sign of a longer fall weather period.
The songbirds generally, and specifically the bluebirds and hummingbirds usually stay on for an extended time. We did have a couple of unique spells of super warm weather, but they left. Nature was too quiet too early. Snow buntings I have seen seem to be early. The blue jays and chickadees don’t seem to be so raucous.
And there seems to be more grouse drumming this fall; “this means a mild and open winter.” And, “The oak’s acorn shells don’t seem to be too thick,” another indication of a milder winter.” I’ll add the height of a wasp nest as another sign indicating a snowy winter, but I have not seen many above eye level, linking this to my prediction.
Turtles and other signs
A few things this year.
Turtles were mired in the mud so much earlier this year. Late summer and fall heat spells did not bring the turtles out. So this early blast of winter is forthcoming.
It is the same for the surficial water insects they were gone way too early. The pickerel weed seemed to turn brown much too early as did the fern/bracken. The appearance of fungi seems to be earlier
One thing I have not seen is a preponderance of pine cones on the crowns of eastern white pines, some think this is an indication of heavy snows, not so many on the ground. The squirrels will not be happy besides, it will be a shorter winter anyway.
The bears. I have seen more bears during the latter part of the summer and early fall. Fattening up for the first blast of winter, they were up into the beech and oak trees very early this year. But this first blast of winter will not stay.
People are saying the trees are turning colour later this year. The trees were under a lot of stress this year with periods of too much heat, some drought then too much rain. Henceforth the colours do not appear to be so vibrant. The colours are at their peak and it should be all over by Thanksgiving. It is a shorter than usual one-month gradual show. The approaching high winds will quickly strip the trees.
And the golden colour of the tamarack seems to be turning early. The tamarack tends to change colour and needles fall later than the broadleaf trees (not deciduous trees because tamarack is a coniferous tree). Tamarack colour change is early this year, probably for the same reasons as the broadleaf trees. It has been warm even at night so far, rather than single-digit temperatures.
I am an observer of nature alright, and the signs are there.
Other experts
La Niña is expected to affect winter weather in Canada for the third straight year according to AccuWeather's senior meteorologist Brett Anderson. Winters in Canada are typically cold and snowy in many regions, but due to the orientation of the jet stream and the climatological phenomenon known as La Niña, some areas will bear the brunt of stormy weather while people in other areas could experience a break on their heating bill. Anderson says residents in much of the eastern half of Canada who are big fans of milder temperatures are in luck this winter.
The 2024/25 Old Farmers’ Almanac says, “Ontario's winter will be filled with a whirlwind of both snow and rain but as you move north in latitude a cold and snowy winter for mid to northern Ontario. This winter, temperatures will be up and snowfall down reports Carol Connare, the Almanac’s editor-in-chief while the best chances of a white winter are in the Prairies. British Columbia is predicted to have a wet winter, which will hopefully result in lots of snow in the mountains for skiers.”
The NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) say the upcoming 2024-2025 winter season, a weak La Niña looks to be in store. Their graphs predict a 65+ per cent chance that water temperatures will be below average ( La Niña) and a 30 per cent chance that water temperatures will be near average. These model forecasts provide us with a good signal for a weak La Nina through the 2024-2025 winter season.
Can we expect a repeat of winter 2023-24's record warmth this year? The Weather Network will release a more detailed preview of the 2024-25 season on Oct. 8.
Environment Canada has not yet made its winter prediction which is a three-month system. Its objective is to forecast the evolution of global climate conditions. So you can wait on that. For December though, their models indicate a 75 per cent above-normal temperature range for northern Ontario.
Wow, the experts may be aligning with the natural signs and not the models.
The prediction
When you make the winter prediction people are expecting four parts, when will we get enough snow to say 'winter is here,' then how much snow will we receive what about cold spells and finally when is all going to end?
Taking into consideration all the natural signs, particularly the beavers, I have about an 86 per cent success rate over eleven years. That’s an A- in Ontario and within the Quebec school system this grade qualification is 'very good.' Back Roads Bill was spot on last year. This year the turtles made a difference.
Recall last year, snow came upon us at Halloween, stayed around for a bit then no snow…no snow and milder temperatures and an early spring.
Like home building contractors there could be good and bad beaver lodge builders. Two out of the three little pigs were like that. You have to examine many beaver lodges to make a seasonal, climatic prediction. I have seen enough. The feed beds seem smaller than other years and so does the amount of mud on the lodges – a sure sign of a shorter winter.
Other signs noticed, the songbirds were gone much too early; the geese are flocking up big time just now and flying at night. You will now see them moving in abundance moving more quickly southwards.
The wasps were very busy this year but then disappeared…early snow is approaching. Same with the mice, too many trying to get inside.
So much roadkill, the animals are moving and the deer rut seems to be early. These are all signs of the early snow which again will not stay around. You may wish to get your snow tires ready.
So here it is, there will be a lengthy fall-type weather but, with an early blast of winter. Normal winter weather will be delayed by more periods of rain and freezing rain, significant snow accumulation will not occur until after Christmas. So pick up a few jugs of windshield wiper fluid on sale.
Winter will be shorter with only a couple of cold weather periods. So by March 20, spring will be sprung.
Therefore, we will save money on our heating bills and like last year the snowmobile enthusiasts will not be happy as the freeze-up will be delayed. Snowshoers and skiers and those who like to run their new snowblowers and shovel their lawns. Sorry.
I am grateful for Gord. He would tell me, “Don’t be in a hurry, go down to the river and sit for a bit, the current will take your worries away.” This year the waterways will be open longer.
The winter solstice is the day with the fewest hours of sunlight throughout the year, making it the shortest day of the year. Although the winter solstice means the start of winter, it also means the return of more sunlight. It only gets brighter from here on the back roads.