White Christmas in the Sault? Don't count on it, says Environment Canada

Those looking for a picturesque white Christmas this year in Sault Ste. Marie are going to be disappointed by the following article. 

Unseasonably warmer conditions throughout northeastern Ontario has led the majority of snow that fell throughout November and December to disappear — and according to Environment Canada, it's a trend that should continue in the days leading up to Christmas.

That’s a far cry from previous years: According to Environment Canada meteorologist Trudy Kidd, the Sault has had an 84 per cent chance of a white Christmas from 1997 to 2021. But that percentage seems to be slim this year.  

“It looks like it’s green for you guys right now,” Kidd told SooToday Tuesday. 

The Sault has received just 24.2 centimetres of snow so far in December; typically, the city sees nearly 100 centimetres of the white stuff on average by the end of the month.  

“Being that we’re two-thirds of the way through the month, we’ve only seen a quarter of the usual snowfall,” Kidd said. 

Sault Ste. Marie has seen more rainfall than usual this month due to the warmer temperatures. On average, the city sees 16 millimetres of rain during the month of December. But this year, there’s been 26 millimetres recorded in the first two-and-a-half weeks of the month. 

Kidd said models from Environment Canada have been predicting a warmer than normal winter ahead. “What we’re seeing is really consistent with the models we’re pointing towards, and part of that is El Niño,” she said. 

And that, Kidd added, usually means a warmer and drier winter. “That’s not always the case, that’s not a strong correlation,” she said. “But that’s what we were expecting with El Niño this year, and that’s panning out.” 

As for the remainder of this week, Kidd said any flurries that do occur over the next couple of days should dissipate rather quickly. 

That's a sharp contrast to last year, when the Sault was hammered with 34 centimetres of snow on Christmas Eve and another 17 centimetres on Christmas Day, 2022. 

No snow is expected on Christmas Eve this year. And while there is a chance of rain showers or flurries forecast for Christmas Day, Kidd doesn’t believe any snow that comes down will actually stay. “It’s a warm one, so it won’t stick,” she said. 

Regardless of the predictions, Kidd advises travellers to continue to look at forecasts for not only their area, but where they’re travelling to as well. The warning preparedness meteorologist added that motorists should not let their guard down and allow emergency kits for their vehicles to become an afterthought due to the relatively warmer conditions.   

“It’s easier to forget that bad weather can come, so now is a great time to be prepared — get your emergency kits ready,” Kidd said. “Just because it’s warmer and perhaps drier than normal, that doesn’t mean we couldn't see some really bad snowstorms or freezing rain events to come.”