The Liberal Party of Canada will choose Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s successor Sunday night, ending a two-month campaign that was dominated by tensions with the United States.
There are four hopefuls vying for the position. Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney is widely seen as the frontrunner, followed by former finance minister Chrystia Freeland.
Former government house leader Karina Gould and former MP Frank Baylis are also in the running.
Registered members of the party have until 3 p.m. today to cast their ballot. Those votes will then be used to calculate points distributed to each of Canada’s 343 ridings.
The ballots are ranked, which means that if a contestant doesn’t get more than 50 per cent of the overall points on the first count, the candidate with the fewest points will be eliminated and those votes are then re-distributed.
This continues until someone has more than 50 per cent of the points.
The results will be announced sometime between 5 p.m. and 7 p.m. at the Rogers Centre Ottawa convention centre. Parliament Today will have coverage of the evening’s events.
Trudeau has said the transition for his successor will be swift, telling reporters last week he isn’t interested in being a “caretaker” prime minister. As such, the new Liberal leader is expected to take over within the week.
The leadership race has been largely overshadowed by Canada-U.S. relations, with President Donald Trump flip-flopping between imposing tariffs and pausing them.
Lori Turnbull, a professor of political science at Dalhousie University, said that what should have been a “big deal” was “swallowed up by everything else that’s going on.”
“It doesn't have the same front and center focus that I think it would at any other time,” she said of the leadership race, noting the magnitude of following Trudeau, who has been prime minister for 10 years.
“I think it's kind of taken a backseat of what's going on with Trump.”
The leadership debates reflected this, with much of the discussion centered on what each candidate would do to combat the threat of a trade war between the neighbouring countries.
Carney and Freeland supported the idea of dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs, with Carney adding he would put the U.S. “on notice” in terms of the commercial relationship the two countries hold, while Freeland would target products like Tesla, Wisconsin dairy and Florida orange juice.
All leadership contenders committed to reaching the NATO goal of spending two per cent of GDP on defence spending, with Gould and Freeland saying they would do so by 2027.
The carbon tax has also been a big topic of discussion throughout the campaign, with three of the four candidates vowing to get rid of the consumer pricing.
Gould said she would keep the consumer carbon tax if elected, but would freeze the scheduled April increase.
Whoever the new leader is, Turnbull said they will have to negotiate a fraught relationship with the United States and develop a broad economic response to the global political arena, as well as establish intergovernmental relations during a tense time.
The new leader will also likely need to call a general election, especially if one of the two unelected candidates ends up winning.
It’s not unprecedented for an unelected official to be prime minister, and there are no legal or constitutional reasons that would prevent someone like Carney from taking up the top role.
But Turnbull pointed out that should Carney win, it could be argued that he “has no mandate from anyone except the Liberal Party.”
“It is not at all in his interest to let the legislature go without him,” she told Parliament Today.
“If he wins, he needs to go to the public and make his case so that he has the legitimacy to negotiate with Trump, whatever that negotiation is going to look like.”
Queen’s University policy studies professor Kathy Brock agreed, adding it isn’t a good look to have the prime minister not in the House where he can answer questions and be held accountable. She added that it also opens up the Liberal Party to questions from the public, who may wonder why it is choosing not to hold an election.
“That's what people expect when you take over and you don't have a seat,” she said.
“There's another reason as well. Canadians have indicated that they want change, and we are facing a really serious issue with our relations with the United States right now, and so if the Liberals choose to delay the election, then Canadians could wonder if they're just too desperate to hang on to power and afraid to go to the polls and face the people. “
Unless an election is called, MPs are expected to return to the House on March 24.