Premier Doug Ford says his strategy for fighting back in the U.S. trade war is to influence how Americans talk about the tariffs around their kitchen tables.
Ford held a press conference Monday to announce the province has followed through with adding a 25 per cent surcharge on electricity exports to the U.S. He also said Ontario may increase the surcharge at any time and reiterated his threat of, eventually, cutting off the province's energy supply to three U.S. states.
The province estimates that the surcharge, valued at $10 per megawatt-hour, will cost Americans $300,000 to $400,000 per day — revenue the province will spend on economic support for Ontario residents and businesses impacted by the tariff dispute.
When asked by a Globe and Mail reporter why he thought $400,000 a day would make any difference in a "titanic" trade war with billions and billions of dollars at stake, Ford said it's because electricity costs are an issue that matters to regular people.
"They're called 'kitchen table issues,' and this really will affect (residents) in Minnesota, New York and Michigan," Ford said. "And it's the same as taking alcohol off the shelves."
"These kitchen table issues are absolutely massive," the premier said. "So let's sit down and negotiate a fair deal."
Removing U.S. alcohol from Ontario shelves was the Ford government's first response to U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs. Ford said it's made a difference to political leaders in Kentucky — both Democratic and Republican — who have constituents in the bourbon industry.
Ford's strategy is likely familiar to voters in Ontario. He's heavily promoted alcohol-related policy changes — like "buck-a-beer" and selling drinks in big box and corner stores — that tend to get people talking when his government releases economic updates that would otherwise generate less buzz.
And he's spoken more than once about how powerful a political lever alcohol is to pull.
"There's one thing I learned — I've learned a lot, but one thing — don't mess with people's booze," Ford said last month when removing U.S. alcohol products was just a threat. "They lose their minds."
Likewise, Ford campaigned heavily on reducing the cost of electricity when he first came to power in 2018, tapping into the anger voters had built up against the former Liberal government for letting power costs rise.
Ford is also trying to influence Americans' kitchen-table talk through more pointed television advertising highlighting the economic consequences of America's tariffs, including higher inflation, assembly-line shutdowns, and lost jobs.
"We need to inform the American people," Ford said. "If they just hear one side of the story, they aren't getting the other side. Their opinions might change. But we want to make sure we send a clear message down to the American people: they're our greatest allies in the fight against these tariffs."
Ford's strategy will cost Ontarians.
He's said the province has already spent "tens of millions" of dollars on ads. He also promised to be forthcoming about their total cost, but has yet to provide any figures.
"It will be transparent," he said. "But it will be the best money we've ever spent because if we don't spend it well, it would cost us tens of billions of dollars to our economy."
Meanwhile, some electricity experts have raised concerns about the impact the changes will have on Ontario's electricity supply, given the interconnected nature of the grid across Ontario and the U.S., and questioned the effectiveness of the surcharge.
Mark Winfield, a York University professor and co-chair of the Sustainable Energy Initiative, said Ontario sells power to U.S. through a spot market where the selling price is dependent on buyers' willingness to pay. That means, according to Winfield, that Ontario would have to lower the base price of power before the surtax is applied in order to find willing buyers, having little effect on the final price Americans pay.
However, it will cause "perverse" effects in situations where Ontario has generated more power than domestic demand and needs to offload the excess power, he said. When that happens, Ontario sells it at negative prices.
"In that situation, in effect, we'd actually have to offer more for someone to take it off our hands," Winfield said, adding, "Very perverse."
Ford and Energy Minister Stephen Lecce dismissed concerns Monday that pulling on U.S. energy exports entirely would risk the reliability of Ontario's supply and explained their strategy for doing so.
Ford said that Ontario can lower its overall output of power by reducing hydro generation so that it does not have to export surplus electricity to the U.S. when Ontario's electricity demand is low.
According to Lecce, Ontario can then use electricity from gas power plants and power from Quebec to meet the province's needs when demand peaks during the hot summer months.
However, Winfield said he remained concerned that Ontario's baseload of nuclear energy — which can't be turned off — will be too high when Ontario demand is low so that the surplus power will still need to be exported. He added that in summer, demand peaks will require Ontario to rely heavily on "very dirty and expensive gas," especially if the U.S. prevents Ontario from importing power when needed in retaliation.
Still, the strategy has attracted U.S. media attention.
Ford spoke about it on CBS over the weekend and had a CNN interview scheduled for Monday afternoon.
CBS journalist Ed O'Keefe asked Ford what his message is to American homeowners who see their power bills rise.
"There's one person to be blamed, and that's President Trump," Ford replied." And I sincerely apologize to the American people. I really, truly do. But again, contact your Senator, your congressperson, your governor, and they should be standing on the steps of the Capitol Hill screaming up and down, because this is totally unnecessary."