Cuts and tough choices will follow election, experts say

Ontario, it appears, is in for a rough ride - no matter what kind of government is elected next week.

The 2011 provincial election campaign could be the calm before a powerful economic storm.

That warning is being sounded by highly respected political observers and pundits at Ontario’s largest newspapers.

They also say leaders and candidates of all stripes have avoided discussing what’s coming or how they would respond if asked to govern.

Significant public sector cuts and spending freezes (health care is mentioned in some speculation) are unavoidable, experts say.

Alarm bells have been sounded on television and in print by, among others, David Hodge, a former governor of the Bank of Canada.

“What’s bothered me about the campaign, is that no one is talking about the difficulties of facing up to the situation,” Dodge noted in a National Post interview.

“My experience is always that if you are fairly candid with voters and maintain their trust, you can do things that we all know hurt. But if you haven’t been candid and then come along in the 2012-13 budget and rape and pillage, then the public will get really angry and you will have real social unrest.”

Dodge was also quoted in a September 26 Globe and Mail article that appeared under a headline reading, “Spending cuts - the unspoken issue.”

“Whoever wins will be seen to have lied to the public,” he stated, claiming the major parties have presented “impossible” economic platforms.

Michael Decter, an economist and former senior Ontario public servant, has expressed similar concerns.

He believes the new government will need to make spending cuts that are not detailed in any platform. Even more compelling words have come from someone much closer to the province’s finances.

Don Drummond was hired by the McGuinty government to head a commission created to advise on restructuring provincially funded services.

Known as a straight talker, Drummond spoke candidly in a Toronto Star article earlier this year: “Whoever forms the government on October 7 is going to find themselves in a deep fiscal hole. The public certainly doesn’t understand it, and I don’t know whether the political parties understand it.”

Revenues well below projections in the 2011 provincial budget are a big contributor to anticipated fiscal difficulties.

A televised debate tonight from 6:30 to 8 will give the provincial Liberal, NDP and PC leaders an opportunity to address the issues head-on.

Local candidates will have their turn, too.

The Sault Ste. Marie Chamber of Commerce, in partnership with Algoma University, will host a Provincial Election Candidates Forum on Wednesday, September 28, in the Council Chambers at the Civic Centre.

Television coverage will be provided by Shaw TV Cable Channel 10 from 7 p.m. until 9 p.m.