Today will be Chris Scott’s final chance to participate in an all-candidates meeting in Sault Ste. Marie before the election, but don’t be surprised if he’s a no show.
So far the Progressive Conservative candidate has chosen not to show up for any of the local all-candidates meetings.
Although Scott’s campaign manager, Ross Romano, confirmed by text that the PC candidate would be at the Tuesday night debate, an organizer said only three candidates RSVP'd for the event and Scott wasn't one of them.
Nicholas Luck, executive director of the Sault Downtown Association, said participants will include Liberal candidate Gurwinder Dusanjh, Lisa Vezeau-Allen for the NDP, and Arnold Heino for the New Blue party.
Political analyst Amanda Alvaro said skipping debates is a strategic decision that could work for the PC party in some ridings, but could be detrimental in others.
“In ridings where they've held the riding in the past, there may be a strategic decision to say we'll keep this candidate from debates to prevent any gaffes or mistakes that could really swing that particular vote or riding,” said Alvaro, president and founder of Pomp and Circumstance, a public relations firm based in Toronto.
Alvaro said the PC party wouldn’t mind if candidates went door to door to talk to voters, but leader Doug Ford would want them to avoid being quoted or seen in a way that would be disadvantageous to the party.
A political science professor agreed that it can be smart for Conservative candidates to not participate in debates.
“Given that the Ford government has an objectively poor record, it makes sense in ridings that are polling extremely well for the PCs to simply sit back and let things play out,” said Toby Rollo, chair of political science at Lakehead University.
Rollo said Stephen Harper refused to participate in a televised debate in 2015 and Donald Trump has also refused in both his election campaigns.
“Conservative voters are usually an older demographic who are increasingly interested in getting their political content from social media,” Rollo said.
“Conservative parties have prioritized these platforms to connect with their base rather than traditional media.”
While all political groups are expanding their digital strategies, Conservatives have an edge since the algorithms favour content that sparks strong emotional reactions, “particularly anger and fear,” he said.
“Research indicates that these emotions strongly resonate with Conservative voters, driving their political engagement and making such platforms uniquely effective for outreach.
“Figures like Donald Trump and Pierre Poilievre have been successfully leveraging social media outrage for years,” Rollo said.
Not participating in a debate and not doing media interviews would be less beneficial the more voters are engaged in the Sault, Alvaro said.
If voters are following the news, and “if they're looking beyond that at who is the candidate, who can I watch in the debate, who's clearly engaged in the issues, who has a good command of those issues.
“If I'm an engaged voter, that's going to be very appealing to me, so I think they run the risk of being seen to have an absentee candidate," said Alvaro, who was a senior communications adviser during Justin Trudeau's Liberal leadership bid.
She said she was not impressed by Scott’s interview with the Sault Ste. Marie Chamber of Commerce.
“My perspective would be that he seemed nervous. He didn't seem to have a deep understanding of either the platform or the local issues.
“I thought he struggled at times. That could be his communication style. That could be the fact that we're in a snap election and he didn't have time to prepare,” she said.
“Preparation is everything in these interviews, but I did think that at times he seemed to struggle with both the content and his ability to communicate effectively.”
Alvaro said another disadvantage Scott might have is that he isn’t from the Sault, having been chosen by Ford to run in the campaign. Scott was raised in Kemptville, which is near Brockville in southern Ontario.
“I think there's always accusations that you don't understand the riding,” she said.
“There's a local nuance in communities and I think if somebody's parachuted in, if they haven't lived there a long time, if they haven't done business there, if they haven't worked in the community, there's certainly an accusation that is probably pretty valid that they don't understand the fabric of the community in the same way.
“In contrast if you have a candidate who is a long-time resident, who has raised a family, who works in the neighbourhoods, who has a strong network in the community, all of those things are going to be advantageous to that kind of candidate.
“So, there's a risk in that. But the other thing is some people vote for parties and some people vote for candidates,” Alvaro said.
Polling by SooToday shows a very close race. Polls have bounced back and forth between NDP candidate Lisa Vezeau-Allen winning the riding or Scott taking it.
Today's all-candidates debate will be held at the Speakeasy at Algoma University at 5:30 p.m. Doors open at 5 p.m.
Scott was announced as the PC candidate on Jan. 28.
Members of the NDP’s local riding association held a vote on Jan. 30 to choose Vezeau-Allen to be their candidate.
Dusanjh is the candidate for the Liberals.
Jaycob Jacques is running for the Green Party.
Heino is running for the New Blue party.
And the Ontario Party candidate is Paul Frolich.
Voters will head to the polls on Thursday, Feb. 27.