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Federal By-Elections November9/2009 Winners-Losers
By Mac Headrick
SooToday.com
Saturday, November 14, 2009

Mac HeadrickFour federal by-elections were held this past Monday. Normally these types of elections do not result in positive gains for the politicians in charge. They present an opportunity for the electorate to express their dissatisfaction with the government of the day. With Canada experiencing its worst economy in recent memory you would think the Conservatives should have fared poorly. Well the opposite occurred. In today’s’ column l will examine the results.

Four ridings were contested. I will briefly list the 2008 results and compare them to last Monday.

New Westminister-Coquitlam:
The NDP won this seat in 2008 and again on Monday. The significant thing is they increased their margin of victory (from 41.6% to Conservative 38% 2008) to approximately 50% to Conservative 36%.

Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley:
Won by an Independent in 2008 (a former Conservative). This time around the Conservatives 46%, NDP 26%, Liberals 21%. No question a solid Conservative victory.

Hochelaga:
This is a solid Bloc riding. They gathered 49% of the vote in 2008. This time around they got 51%. The big news was in second place was the NDP with approximately 20% of the vote. The Liberal Party was third with 14.3 %. Remember Quebec was at one time a Liberal stronghold.

Montmagny-L’lslet-Kamouraska-Rivere-du-Loup:
This riding went to the Bloc in 2008. On Monday the Conservatives won it 42.7% to the Bloc 37.7 %. This is a significant victory for Stephen Harper.

In conclusion the big winners of the night were the Conservatives. They picked up two seats from 2008. They increased their presence in Quebec. This was accomplished while Canada is in a recession. The opposition in Ottawa, especially the Liberal Party, will be more inclined to find ways to support the ruling Conservatives.

In second place the NDP must be very pleased. They held on to their British Columbia seat increasing the margin of victory. They increased their vote in Quebec beating out the Liberals for second place in Hochelaga.

It was not a good night for the Bloc which of course means it was a great night for Canada. The Conservatives picked a seat from them. To gain a majority government it is necessary to win seats in the Province Of Quebec. Stephen Harper has significantly improved the standing of his party in Quebec.

The big loser of the night was the Liberal Party and by association it’s leader Michael Ignatieff. The Conservative’s communication director Fred DeLorey summed up the evening correctly in the following question and answer statement, “What kind of Official Opposition party hoping to win government does not do well in by-elections in the midst of a global economic downturn? One that’s in trouble.”

I actually have the solution for the Liberal Party to turn its political fortunes around. As a friend who is a strong Conservative supporter said to me, he dislikes Bob Rae immensely, but if Rae were the Liberal leader in Ottawa the Conservatives would have cause to worry. I have held this opinion for the last three years. Fortunately for the NDP and Tony Martin locally the federal Liberal Party refuses to accept the obvious. The individual most capable to lead the Liberals is just a sitting member. To Bob Rae’s credit he has accepted his role and is the good soldier.

As l see it the Conservatives were the big winners Monday night. The NDP had reason to celebrate. The Bloc lost which in itself benefits Canada. As for the Liberal Party the slump continues.

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Responses: 4

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RLE 11/14/2009 7:19:37 AM Report

As a Canadian, I tend to blame the recession on the folks south of the border as the "Bush bunnies" didn't keep as close of an eye on the movers and shakers as the Canadian government (both Liberal and Conservative) did

Therefore,I feel no anger towards the Conservatives for the state of the economy. In addition I also don't believe any other party could handle the problem better---differently perhaps--- but not better.

Also,I assume that issues such as the torch run going mainly to Conservative ridings and the Tory logo being on stimulus cheques were not decisive issues for the folks in these ridings.Personally, I stop voting Liberal when the sleaze factor went beyond palatable. The Conservative with the aforementioned antics are already beyond sleaze factor palatability
Retreaded 11/14/2009 10:32:56 AM Report

Iggy has to go before any turnaround will happen with the LIbs.
tetrus 11/14/2009 11:06:39 AM Report

Your Conservative friend was either joking, be scarcastic or is completely ignorant. The Conservatives worry about Bob Rae?? Please!!! Forget that Iggy is just visising and replace that with "remember Rae Days" People may not be able to explain exactly what it is but is scares the hell out of everyone and the fact that one needs Ontario to for a government that just ain't gonna happen.
Oldie Goldie 11/14/2009 12:55:55 PM Report

I believe that Bob Rae pulled out of the Liberal Leadership race to let Iggy fail on his own and then he would come back when Iggy fails.

The " Rae Days " are looking pretty good to McGuinty right now as he tries to deal with his massive deficit.

By the way---Why do so many people believe Taxes need to be raised and new Taxes brought in to deal with a huge deficit. The taxpayers of Ontario did not cause the deficit.

It is just like Ontario Hydro--they created a deficit and we, the tax payers, have to bail them out.

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